Bitcoin is the first application of Blockchain technology. No one knew where Bitcoin could go when it was started in 2009. In 2010, a Bitcoin developer — Laszlo Hanyecz — bought 2 pizzas using 10,000 Bitcoins.[1] As of writing this article, in today’s Bitcoins price, that is $250 million per pizza. If Laszlo knew that his 10,000 Bitcoin would increase in value, would he have exchanged his Bitcoin for 2 $15 pizzas? Of course not. However, we can use our judgment to predict the future prices of many things, including Bitcoin.
Will Bitcoin reach $300,000 per coin? Different people will give different opinions. In this article, we will provide our informed predictions of whether Bitcoin can reach $300k per coin.
There always would be at least two groups of opinions on everything. In politics, we have Democrats and Republicans; we have capitalism and socialism, we have iPhone(iOS) and Android, Windows and Mac, etc. We also have people who like Tesla and also who hate Tesla.
Warren Buffet considers Bitcoin as a rat poison, Charlie Munger says Bitcoin is a fad, Bill Gates openly stated in a CNBC interview that he hates Bitcoin and if there were an easy way to short Bitcoin, he would have done it.
We all know that the future of transportation is Electric. Our reserve for Gas and Oil is diminishing. Even if we don’t like the outcome, it’s inevitable. Therefore, companies like Tesla are doing tremendous work for the US and for a sustainable future. So, it doesn’t make any sense that anybody would bet against Tesla to fail. But don’t be surprised that many are waiting for Tesla’s failure, including Bill Gates. He even shorted Tesla. Therefore, a person who is famous or rich doesn’t mean he is working for the best interest of general people or knows everything or can predict everything correctly.
Bitcoin is considered as the digital Gold of modern times. Since 2009, many cryptocurrencies have come into existence to profit off of Bitcoin’s success. There are currently 4,000 cryptocurrencies in existence, but only a handful of cryptos are popular. However, since day one, Bitcoin is the king of all cryptos.
There are currently approximately 19 million Bitcoins in circulation. According to the protocol, there will be a total of 21 million Bitcoins. If this coin reaches $300k/token, the total market cap of Bitcoin would be 21 million x $300,000 = $6.3 trillion. So, can Bitcoin reach a $6.3 trillion market cap? Let’s examine.
The US’s GDP is approximately $21 trillion, China’s GDP is $14 trillion, and the world’s cumulative GDP is around $87 trillion.[2]
Gold, the most popular precious metal, has a market cap of $11 trillion. Another precious metal, Silver, has a market cap of $1.5 trillion. [3]
At 300k per token, Bitcoin would be worth 50% of Gold’s market cap and 45% of China’s GDP. To reach this high market cap, individual private investors can’t do anything. We need investment from big investment funds, pension funds, various governments, and the top 1% wealthy elites for this high market cap.
The top 1% rich in the US have a combined net worth of $34 trillion. They control 30% of all the USA’s wealth. On the contrary, the bottom 50% population in the US has a $2 trillion net worth or 1.9% of the total USA’s wealth.
Moreover, the top 10% of rich people hold 88% of all the stocks and bonds of the USA’s equity market. The top 1% controls more than 2x equity than the bottom 50%.[4]
Even if we all — the bottom 50% — come together and pull all of our money from savings accounts, pension funds, stocks, bonds, and home equity funds, we still can’t gather more than $2 trillion. Therefore for Bitcoin to reach 300k per token, we still need $4 trillion. Thus, the top 1% rich have to jump into Bitcoin; otherwise, this crypto will never reach $300,000 per Bitcoin price target. The question is, will it happen?
Gold currently has a total market cap of $11 trillion. It’s one of the most versatile and useful metals on earth.
More than 80% of the world’s Gold in use today as jewelry. According to a 2019 USGS report, in the US alone, 50% Gold is used in jewelry, 37% are used in electronics, and 8% are used in official coins. Various countries also have a massive stockpile of Gold in their treasury. For example, China has 470 metric tons, Australia has 330 metric tons, Russia has 310 metric tons, and the US has 200 metric tons of Gold reserves. [5]
The rarity, usefulness, versatility, and history make Gold one of the most desirable metals. Though we moved away from gold currency, it still has versatile critical use in our economy.
Bitcoin can reach a $6 trillion valuation or 50% worth of the world’s Gold, only if most people value Bitcoin as precious as Gold.
Bitcoin’s best use case is only as an investment vehicle. Yes, we can use it as a transactional currency, but the high transaction fees and slow transfer speed are bottlenecks.
Bitcoin mining computers are the backbone of this network. These miners process all transactions. When all the Bitcoin is mined, miners can only be profitable if the transfer fees are high. High fees would prevent Bitcoin from becoming mainstream crypto. Bitcoin is also very volatile. A volatile asset is risky for use as a transactional asset. Therefore, the only use case of Bitcoin is as an investment vehicle.
Furthermore, 65% of Bitcoin mining hash powers are in China. There is a concept of 51% point of attack in the crypto world, where, if someone or an entity controls 51% mining power, they can take over the crypto network. A single attack is more than enough to erode public trust.
Moreover, China is not working in favor of the US. No Chinese companies work independently. The CCP has control over everything. Therefore, even though we haven’t seen any attack on the Bitcoin network, we can’t rule that out. The wealthy 1% will not invest unless they are confident that their money is safe and would give them a guaranteed return.
Considering all these negative aspects, we believe Bitcoin will never reach $300k per coin. Even if it gets this high valuation, it’s unsustainable, and the price would undoubtedly crash.
